Are FCS vs. Power Four upsets a thing of the past? The college football landscape is evolving, and the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening. But, as the saying goes, 'Never count the FCS out.'
In the past, FCS upsets over Power Four opponents were a regular occurrence, serving as a thrilling interlude in the college football season. However, the last upset occurred in Week 4 of the 2023 season, when Sacramento State stunned Stanford 30-23. Since then, Power conference teams have won 125 straight games against FCS competition, a stark reminder of the talent disparity.
The transfer portal and NIL have played a significant role in this shift. FCS programs struggle to retain their best players, who often leave for the FBS level. Since the NIL era began in 2022, FBS power conference teams have dominated FCS opponents with a 223-2 record, a stark contrast to the previous 16 seasons when power conference teams were 747-38 against FCS opponents.
However, the FCS is not without its success stories. North Dakota State and Jacksonville State have proven that FCS programs can compete with FBS teams, with the former going 6-4 against power-conference opponents since 2006 and the latter picking up four FBS wins in its final 13 FCS seasons.
Breaking the streak may require a near-perfect alignment and a bit of luck for the FCS side. With over 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups on the 2026 schedule, the focus shifts to six games with the best chance of an upset. South Dakota State at Northwestern, Youngstown State at Kentucky, North Dakota at Nebraska, Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State, Austin Peay at Vanderbilt, and Monmouth at West Virginia are the potential flashpoints.
South Dakota State, led by quarterback Chase Mason, faces a challenging task against Northwestern, which has a history of FCS upsets. Youngstown State, with reigning Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, takes on Kentucky, a team with high expectations but a history of first-year coach struggles. North Dakota, with dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski, faces Nebraska, a team in transition under new coach Matt Rhule.
Tennessee Tech, with a strong transfer class, faces Mississippi State, a team with a tough schedule and potential for a losing streak. Austin Peay, led by quarterback Chris Parson, takes on Vanderbilt, a team in transition after losing quarterback Diego Pavia. Monmouth, with a history of giving Group of Six teams fits, faces West Virginia, a team in flux under Rich Rodriguez.
In conclusion, while the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening, the FCS is not without its chances of an upset. The 2026 season promises to be an intriguing one, with the potential for several shocking upsets. As the saying goes, 'You can't keep a good FCS team down,' and the 2026 season may just prove that.
